CALPNIE :(
On 11.20 I was unpleasantly surprised by a valuation analysis conducted by Miller Buckfire (??) revaluing the current equity from between a whopping $0.00 to $0.43 from a current price ~$1.00. I took a beating needless to say. A few days later the equity comittee released their own analysis from Perella Weinberg (??) valuing the equity anywhere from $8.00 to $11.00!!!
Ok so someone is smoking something here. Looking through the reports its easy to find how these two companies can have such significant differences. The bullish report utilized an EBITDAR multiple of 12 - 13 and a discount rate of 8% whereas the bearish forecast utilized 8.5 - 9.5 and a discount rate 9 - 9.5. Not to mention there was a discrepancy between the number of shares outstanding too!! DCF analysis solely relies on your assumptions so this is really a 'he said/she said' kind of story which will ultimately be determined by a bankruptcy judge. I really really dislike taking headline risk....
On 11.20 I was unpleasantly surprised by a valuation analysis conducted by Miller Buckfire (??) revaluing the current equity from between a whopping $0.00 to $0.43 from a current price ~$1.00. I took a beating needless to say. A few days later the equity comittee released their own analysis from Perella Weinberg (??) valuing the equity anywhere from $8.00 to $11.00!!!
Ok so someone is smoking something here. Looking through the reports its easy to find how these two companies can have such significant differences. The bullish report utilized an EBITDAR multiple of 12 - 13 and a discount rate of 8% whereas the bearish forecast utilized 8.5 - 9.5 and a discount rate 9 - 9.5. Not to mention there was a discrepancy between the number of shares outstanding too!! DCF analysis solely relies on your assumptions so this is really a 'he said/she said' kind of story which will ultimately be determined by a bankruptcy judge. I really really dislike taking headline risk....
posted by market operator at 11:30 AM
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